US Hardware Sell Through
128-bit hardware sales were down 7% year over year but up 187% sequentially. Sonyâs PS2 unit sales in November were up 184% sequentially but down 36% year over year. Microsoftâs Xbox unit sales in November were up 178% sequentially and up 5% year over year. Nintendo GCN unit sales in November were up 197% sequentially and up
61% year over year. Nintendo GBA unit sales in November were up 230% sequentially and up 3% year over year.
Other crap they had:
We use NPDâs TRST data for video game sales in the U.S. and PC Data for PC game sales in the U.S. to estimate year over year growth rates for the companies we cover. Over the past year, the companies participating in these surveys and the format they are presented in have changed several times. Therefore, we would not consider the analysis presented here as the gospel. There are several adjustments and estimations that have to be made to this raw data to develop these numbers, so they should not be seen as exact representations of a companyâs reported sales.
Monthly Sell Through Summary
The data in the chart below represents the first two months of the quarter for videogame sales, and October data for PC videogame sales.
Exhibit 1: Calendar Q4 US Sell Through (PC not included in November numbers)
US$ in millions, unless otherwise stated
Quarterly US Sell Through Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 QTD 2003 QTD 2002 % Change
da
Overall SW -14.8% 7.2% -100.0% -1.8%
Activision 23.20 $ 70.57 $ 93.76 $ 79.50 $ 17.9%
Electronic Arts 99.34 $ 171.63 $ 270.97 $ 227.85 $ 18.9%
Midway 4.88 $ 7.50 $ 12.38 $ 33.77 $ -63.3%
THQ, Inc. 30.77 $ 56.20 $ 86.97 $ 76.41 $ 13.8%
Take2 Interactive 21.07 $ 44.16 $ 65.23 $ 167.20 $ -61.0%
Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.
Exhibit 2: US Top 25 Videogame Titles
Rank Title Publisher
1 GCN MARIO KART: DOUBLE Nintendo
2 PS2 MEDAL HONOR RISING Electronic Arts
3 PS2 FINAL FANTASY X-2 Square Enix
4 XBX GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK Take Two Interactive
5 PS2 SOCOM II: NAVY SEALS Sony
6 PS2 NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND Electronic Arts
7 PS2 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision
8 PS2 TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA Activision
9 GBA MARIO BROS 3: MARIO 4 Nintendo
10 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts
11 PS2 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ
12 PS2 LORD RING:RETURN KING Electronic Arts
13 GCN MARIO PARTY 5 Nintendo
14 XBX TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA Activision
15 GBA YU-GI-OH! SACRED CARD Konami
16 GBA NAMCO MUSEUM Namco
17 PS2 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts
18 GBA FROGGER'S ADV: TEMPLE Konami
19 XBX HALO Microsoft
20 PS2 JAK II Sony
21 GBA PAC-MAN COLLECTION Namco
22 PS2 EYE TOY Sony
23 XBX T. CLANCY'S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft
24 GBA MARIO & LUIGI SAGA Nintendo
25 PS2 RATCHET & CLANK:GOING Sony
Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.
November Videogame Sales Results
â¢Overall videogame software sales were up 7.2% year over year for the month of November, reversing a two-month trend of double-digit declines, and up 115% sequentially. 128-bit software sales were up 15% year over year and 109% sequentially, and GBA software sales were up 12% y/y and 187% m/m.
â¢128-bit hardware sales were down 7% y/y in November due to the lack of a holiday price cut on Xbox and PS2. However, on a sequential basis sales were up 187% driven by a 197% increase in GCN sales, bringing the install base of new consoles to 32.7 million in the U.S. GBA hardware sales grew 3% y/y, bringing the install base to 17.6M in the U.S.
â¢Electronic Arts (ERTS, $43.25, OUTPERFORM, TP $60, OW) U.S. videogamesales for the month of November were up 29% versus last year due to the strength of Medal of Honor: Rising Sun and Need for Speed: Underground. The companyâssales growth accelerated in November from the 12% y/y growth in October, and this trend should continue in the December data.
â¢Activision, Inc. (ATVI, $15.04, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $17, OW) U.S. sales increased 45% year over year for the month of November. The companyâs Tony Hawk Underground was released late in October and sold approximately 769,000 units across 4 platforms. The launch of True Crime was successful, selling approximately 603,000 units in its first month.
â¢THQ, Inc. (THQI, $15.20, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $22, OW) U.S. sales increased 3% year over year in November due to a strong performance from the companyâs WWE Here Comes The Pain, as well as the release of Tak & the Power of JuJu and Spongebob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom.
â¢For Take Two Interactive (TTWO, $29.00, OUTPERFORM [V], TP $50, OW) sales in November were down 47% y/y, but up 181% month over month. The launch of Rockstarâs Manhunt was not as successful as anticipated, but the companyâs Grand Theft Auto Double Pack for the Xbox sold much better than expected with 532,000 units sold between the PS2 and Xbox versions. Midway Games, Inc. (MWY, $3.27, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP $1.50, OW) U.S. sales in the month of November were down 72% year over year.
â¢Overall, this was a solid result for the industry in general and Electronic Arts and Activision specifically. Combined with the results from October, we believe the holiday season is on track and believe company shares should benefit.
US Hardware Install Base and Tie-Ratios
US Hardware Sales (000)
Install
Base 2001 Q1'02 Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 2002 Q1'03 Q2'03 Q3'03 Q4'03
Est LTD
Tie-Ratio
Playstation2 20,288 6,242 1,140 1,422 1,392 4,587 8,541 1,341 992 936 1,149 7.55
Game Boy Advance 17,633 4,950 1,087 1,174 872 3,812 6,944 1,258 1,492 1,266 1,724 3.22
Xbox 6,669 1,422 403 572 464 1,740 3,179 526 420 455 667 6.17
Gamecube 5,702 1,236 251 406 433 1,256 2,347 410 310 392 1,008 5.68
Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.
Ok, the first bolded is Lifetime in millions and the second is Q4 total for 2003 (Oct. and Nov.) so far...
Activisionâs U.S. sales increased 45% year over year for the month of November. The companyâs Tony Hawk Underground was released late in October and sold approximately 769,000 units across 4 platforms. The launch of True Crime was successful, selling approximately 603,000 units in its first month.
Activision's Top 10 US VG Sell Through for Q3â04 TD
Rank Platform Title Retail Date
1 PS2 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND OCT'03
2 PS2 TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA NOV '03
3 Xbox TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA NOV '03
4 Xbox TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND OCT'03
5 GCN TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND OCT'03
6 GCN TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA NOV '03
7 PS2 CABELAS DEER HUNT 2K4 SEP'03
8 PS2 TONY HAWKS PRO SKATR4 OCT '02
9 PS2 SPIDER-MAN: THE MOV IE APR'02
10 GBA TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND OCT'03
Source: CSFB estimates based on NPD Funworld data.
Electronic Arts U.S. videogame sales for the month of November were up 29% versus last year due to the strength of Medal of Honor: Rising Sun and Need for Speed: Underground. The companyâs sales growth accelerated in November from the 12%y/y growth in October, and this trend should continue in the December data.
Electronic Arts' Top 10 US VG Sell Through for Q3â04 TD
Rank Platform Title Retail Date
1 PS2 NBA LIVE 2004 OCT'03
2 PS2 MADDEN NFL 2004 AUG'03
3 PS2 MEDAL HONOR RISING NOV'03
4 PS2 NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND NOV'03
5 PS2 LORD RING:RETURN KING NOV'03
6 PS2 TIGER WOODS PGA 2004 SEP'03
7 PS2 SSX 3 OCT'03
8 Xbox NBA LIVE 2004 OCT'03
9 Xbox NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND NOV'03
10 Xbox MEDAL HONOR RISING NOV'03
Midway Games, Inc.âs U.S. sales in the month of November were down 72% year over year. The companyâs Mortal Kombat: Deadly Alliance on the PS2 was once again the top seller in the month, followed by NFL Blitz Pro and NHL Hitz Pro on the PS2.
Midway's Top 10 US VG Sell Through for Q4â03 TD
Rank Platform Title Retail Date
1 PS2 MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY NOV'02
2 PS2 NFL BLITZ PRO OCT'03
3 PS2 NHL HITZ PRO SEP'03
4 PS2 MLB SLUGFEST 20-04 MAR'03
5 PS2 MIDWAY ARCADE TRSURES NOV'03
6 PS2 ROADKILL OCT'03
7 PS2 SPY HUNTER 2 NOV'03
8 Xbox MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY NOV'02
9 Xbox ROADKILL OCT'03
10 GCN MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY NOV'02
THQ, Inc.âs U.S. sales increased 3% year over year in November due to a strong performance from the companyâs WWE and GBA products, and the release of Tak & the Power of JuJu and Spongebob SquarePants: Battle for Bikini Bottom. We continue to believe that THQ will benefit substantially from the strength in GBA hardware sales and the availability of a $99 console this Christmas.
THQ's Top 10 US VG Sell Through for Q3â04 TD
Rank Platform Title Retail Date
1 PS2 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN OCT'03
2 PS2 TAK AND POWER OF JUJU OCT'03
3 GBA DISNEY'S FINDING NEMO MAY'03
4 GCN TAK AND POWER OF JUJU OCT '03
5 PS2 SPONGEBOB: BATTLE NOV'03
6 GBA SPONGEBOB: BATTLE NOV'03
7 PS2 DISNEY'S FINDING NEMO MAY'03
8 GBA TAK AND POWER OF JUJU OCT'03
9 GCN WWE WRESTLEMANIA XIX SEP'03
10 GCN SPONGEBOB: BATTLE NOV'03
For Take Two Interactive sales in November were down 47% y/y, but up 181% month over month. The launch of Rockstarâs Manhunt was not as successful as anticipated, but the companyâs Grand Theft Auto Double Pack for the Xbox sold much better than expected with 532,000 units sold between the PS2 and Xbox versions.
Take-Two's Top 10 US VG Sell Through for Cal Q4â03 TD
Rank Platform Title Retail Date
1 Xbox GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK NOV'03
2 PS2 CONFLICT: DESERT II OCT'03
3 PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK OCT'03
4 PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO:VICE OCT'02
5 PS2 MANHUNT NOV'03
6 Xbox CONFLICT: DESERT II OCT'03
7 PS2 GRAND THEFT AUTO 3 OCT'01
8 PS2 MIDNIGHT CLUB II APR'03
9 PS2 CELEBRITY DEATH MATCH OCT'03
10 Xbox MAX PAYNE 2: FALL MAX NOV'03
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TOP TEN:
GCN 1 MARIO KART: DOUBLE Nintendo $25,731,300 527,742
PS2 2 MEDAL HONOR RISING Electronic Arts $20,463,280 420,313
PS2 3 FINAL FANTASY X-2 Square Enix $19,986,300 402,973
XBX 4 GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK Take-Two Interactive $19,354,530 391,315
PS2 5 SOCOM II: NAVY SEALS Sony $18,733,560 380,182
PS2 6 NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND Electronic Arts $18,276,070 370,450
PS2 7 TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA Activision $17,361,080 354,448
PS2 8 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision $17,139,500 359,924
Top 10 Selling Games for PS2 for November 2003 (Retail Sales $)
Title Publisher Projected $ 's Projected Units
1 MEDAL HONOR RISING Electronic Arts 20,463,280 $ 420,313
2 FINAL FANTASY X-2 Square Enix 19,986,300 $ 402,973
3 SOCOM II: NAVY SEALS Sony 18,733,560 $ 380,182
4 NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND Electronic A rts 18,276,070 $ 370,450
5 TRUE CRIME :STREETS LA Activision 17,361,080 $ 354,448
6 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision 17,139,500 $ 359,924
7 MADDEN NFL 2004 Electronic Arts 12,561,750 $ 257,007
8 WWE: HERE COMES PAIN THQ 11,473,230 $ 236,303
9 LORD RING:RETURN KING Electronic Arts 11,467,140 $ 233,197
10 NBA LIVE 2004 Electronic Arts 8,753,682 $ 177,715
Top 10 Selling Games for Xbox for November 2003 (Retail Sales $)
Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 GRAND THEFT AUTO PACK Take-Two Interactive 19,354,530 $ 391,315
2 TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA Activis ion 9,790,692 $ 198,245
3 T . CLANCY'S RAINBOW 3 Ubi Soft 6,916,603 $ 140,216
4 NEED SPEED: UNDERGRND Electronic Arts 5,679,891 $ 115,165
5 MEDAL HONOR RISING Electronic Arts 5,659,503 $ 114,833
6 LORD RING :RETURN KING Electronic A rts 4,648,416 $ 94,559
7 HALO Microsoft 4,394,624 $ 161,039
8 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision 4,137,941 $ 84,784
9 COUNTER STRIKE Microsoft 3,930,359 $ 80,694
10 PROJECT GOTHAM 2 Microsoft 3,400,012 $ 70,723
Top 10 Selling Games for GameCube for November 2003 (Retail Sales $)
Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 MARIO KART: DOUBLE Nintendo 25,731,300 $ 527,742
2 MARIO PARTY 5 Nintendo 10,513,050 $ 213,495
3 YU-GI-OH! FALSEBOUND Konami 3,796,675 $ 95,891
4 LORD RING:RETURN KING Electronic Arts 3,784,515 $ 76,841
5 KIRBY AIR RIDE Nintendo 3,426,500 $ 69,311
6 TONY HAWK UNDERGROUND Activision 3,392,970 $ 69,290
7 SW :ROGUE SQUADRON III LucasArts Entertainment 2,893,335 $ 59,851
8 TRUE CRIME:STREETS LA Activision 2,492,181 $ 50,435
9 SUPER SMASH BRO MELEE Nintendo 2,314,935 $ 83,056
10 MEDAL HONOR RISING Electronic Arts 2,208,762 $ 44,859
Top 10 Selling Games for GBA for November 2003 (Retail Sales $)
Title Publisher Projected $'s Projected Units
1 MARIO BROS 3 : MARIO 4 Nintendo 9,344,474 $ 327,217
2 YU-GI-OH! SACRED CARD Konami 5,701,704 $ 191,011
3 MARIO & LUIGI SAGA Nintendo 3,954,206 $ 135,675
4 POKEMON RUBY Nintendo 2,888,368 $ 92,784
5 SPONGEBOB: BATTLE THQ 2,729,023 $ 96,070
6 DISNEY'S FINDING NEMO THQ 2,606,065 $ 88,386
7 POKEMON SAPPHIRE Nintendo 2,538,562 $ 80,179
8 FIRE EMBLEM Nintendo 2,333,068 $ 7 5 ,7 4 8
9 NAMCO MUSEUM Namco 2,193,388 $ 190,266
10 POKEMON PINBALL : R&S Nintendo 1,920,794 $ 61,809
Thanks to ::: Yahoo game stocks group
